The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes trip to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump. This constitutes the first in-person encounter for the two leaders after an extended period of rising tensions and sharp rhetoric.
Topics for Discussion
Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, security, and US strikes on suspected narco-boats are set to be top on the agenda when they gather at the White House on the scheduled day.
Background of Strained Relations
While the two men were cordial in a phone call following a recent American action, Petro has since said he feels there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier commented that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
Tuesday's meeting comes after months of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly criticised ongoing US attacks on alleged drugs boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump reportedly stating prior to the White House meeting.
Areas of Disagreement
On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to halt the trafficking of cocaine heading north, and has vowed to extend military actions to terrestrial objectives across the region.
But, the acrimony seemed to dissipate following a "cordial" telephone conversation involving the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an 180-degree turn "from both sides".
Mediating Role
Per diplomatic sources, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in setting up the conversation. "I believe in negotiation and I thought our ties were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker reportedly. "My hope is for our relationship to get better."
Border Security and the Guerrilla Group
Prior to Tuesday's meeting, Colombian indicated that much of the discussion would center on shared US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an long frontier.
A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates drug trafficking, extortion, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.
For Trump, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring security for US firms involved in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts note that the ELN has the potential to spoil economic ambitions by attacking foreign investors and employees, as it has previously done in Colombia.
Drug War Cooperation
An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the drug. In November, Petro instituted a halt on information exchange with US authorities after comments from Washington.
The US has, conversely, officially designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the leader and his relatives.
"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," stated a analyst. "Any move to cut off Colombian cooperation could also undermine all investigations."
Potential Outcomes
Despite multiple areas for cooperation, the potential for a confrontation remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."
But for Petro, even a difficult encounter could be advantageous. His time in office concludes in the coming months, and the results of the talks could impact the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win situation," noted a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well takes the air out of opposition arguments... If talks sour, he's defending national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favour."
