A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
